Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 82132.302768 86703.794617 91274.905003 96185.354653 101307.784892 106490.475314 112127.193243
2025-05-18 74360.993626 81335.901208 88506.680754 96419.746001 104896.796734 113695.351790 123507.703365
2025-05-25 68713.714856 77306.504729 86336.353014 96512.205862 107639.214449 119415.465312 132799.789246
2025-06-01 65049.177404 74921.697203 85486.567543 97599.246933 111067.177284 125546.934813 142255.559873
2025-06-08 61185.877367 71968.582776 83695.858401 97347.826591 112751.493717 129541.087088 149171.372263
2025-06-15 58976.996655 70663.622765 83555.516502 98763.587290 116141.802721 135307.961562 157969.741233
2025-06-22 56679.946000 69090.706013 82962.926481 99529.042058 118680.506815 140030.608922 165533.201077
2025-06-29 54266.893813 67240.131706 81923.046582 99660.594421 120390.829035 143733.546752 171881.056017
2025-07-06 52052.334400 65504.363119 80909.728880 99722.864673 121935.306931 147181.339504 177891.830915
2025-07-13 50984.124384 65060.796343 81352.733269 101441.819921 125376.217097 152804.478409 186427.882053
2025-07-20 49865.427087 64491.682198 81592.015643 102873.335009 128446.975570 157983.251885 194455.152054
2025-07-27 48452.188627 63497.755627 81264.487363 103575.844867 130612.951036 162077.043581 201204.134967
2025-08-03 46691.829159 62034.800761 80340.288925 103542.971271 131902.747074 165162.453833 206820.020830
2025-08-10 45171.559464 60816.591350 79669.086694 103779.773005 133492.808688 168597.835824 212867.421277
2025-08-17 43678.270366 59575.813221 78919.784343 103875.304681 134875.743545 171763.964448 218588.631015
2025-08-24 42787.640499 59063.231176 79044.679568 105028.452550 137541.422197 176480.606847 226203.069200
2025-08-31 41285.716565 57712.203827 78068.758618 104761.500916 138415.318022 178992.723302 231126.775697
2025-09-07 40679.000965 57496.541677 78509.530753 106263.894996 141487.316750 184205.565047 239382.927973
2025-09-14 39799.792243 56890.817877 78424.343106 107076.097746 143680.701258 188335.109433 246321.985198
2025-09-21 38673.148147 55920.388894 77836.362010 107215.676993 145003.148321 191374.386054 251915.321217
2025-09-28 37571.384279 54947.883061 77213.779702 107281.746381 146210.167019 194258.152970 257317.023791
2025-10-05 37257.822236 55022.736878 77950.067512 109105.403174 149667.879207 199978.497955 266299.640968
2025-10-12 36836.442927 54933.701266 78457.826094 110623.849659 152735.567518 205221.874661 274714.476389